Topic 3.3

Decision-making techniques

Use quantitative evidence to support business decisions. Calculate and interpret forecasts and investment-appraisal measures, then construct and evaluate decision trees. Complete CPA networks to identify ESTs, LFTs, total float and the critical path.

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Relevant earlier lesson for Topic 3.3

Topic 3.3 develops quantitative sales forecasting from earlier work in Theme 2. The lesson below is optional supporting revision because the relevant knowledge is taught again within Topic 3.3.

Sales forecasting

This link is optional supporting revision. The relevant knowledge is taught again within Topic 3.3, and opening the earlier lesson does not change your Topic 3.3 completion.

3.3.1

Quantitative sales forecasting

36 min

Calculate three-period and centred four-quarter moving averages, use variations and lines of best fit to extrapolate sales, and evaluate the limitations of quantitative forecasting.

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3.3.3

Decision trees

30 min

Construct and interpret simple decision trees, calculate expected monetary rewards and net expected values, and evaluate the limitations of the technique.

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3.3.4

Critical Path Analysis

35 min

Complete and interpret CPA networks by calculating ESTs, LFTs and total float, identifying the critical path, and evaluating the limitations of CPA.

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